Matt Comyn, chief executive of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), Australia’s largest bank, said on Friday that his bank believes the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has finished raising interest rates — but that the board’s November meeting is still “live” and another increase remains possible. Speaking to Alan Kohler of the ABC, Comyn said the RBA’s next move would hinge on quarterly inflation data due at the end of October, ahead of the board’s 3 November meeting.
For Fiji, the stake is not the Australian mortgage market itself. It is what higher repayments do to the pay packets of Fijians working in Australia, to the holiday budgets of Australian families, and to the Australian dollar — three channels that run straight into Fiji’s remittance, tourism and import numbers.
Key facts
- Comyn told the ABC: “We believe that’s the last [rate rise], but certainly I think the last meeting of this calendar year is live.”
- He said the September hike was needed because of inflationary pressure from global forces, naming the Middle East conflict and fuel price rises, according to the ABC.
- He said the share of CBA customers needing financial assistance or struggling to meet repayments had increased.
- He said national house prices fell 8.2 per cent when rates last peaked in 2023, against “current predictions” of an estimated 10 per cent drop — a forecast the ABC report does not attribute to anyone.
- In the UK, The Sun reported on 17 September that the Bank of England held its rate at 3.75 per cent on a 6-3 split.
- Dates to watch: Australian quarterly inflation at the end of October; the RBA board on 3 November; a Bank of England decision in November.
“We believe that’s the last [rate rise], but certainly I think the last meeting of this calendar year is live.” — Matt Comyn, chief executive, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, speaking to the ABC
Why it matters for Fiji
Comyn’s comments are the clearest signal yet from Australia’s biggest lender about 3 November, and they land on top of tightening already delivered: the RBA lifted its cash rate to a 15-year high and there has since been market talk of a fifth hike before the Melbourne Cup.
The three channels
- Remittances. Personal remittance inflows are one of Fiji’s largest sources of foreign exchange, and Australia is among the biggest sending countries. The Reserve Bank of Fiji publishes inflows by source country in its monthly economic review — the series readers should check for the current month’s total rather than relying on any figure inferred from Friday’s interview. Transfers home are residual money: what is left after the mortgage or rent is paid. When the RBA moves, the repayment comes first.
- Tourism. Australia is Fiji’s largest visitor-source market, with arrivals by country of residence published monthly by the Fiji Bureau of Statistics. A Pacific holiday is among the most deferrable items in an Australian family budget, which is why Fijian operators watch the RBA calendar alongside their own forward bookings.
- The currency. The RBF pegs the Fiji dollar to a basket of major trading-partner currencies that includes the Australian dollar, so AUD movements pass through to the FJD and into the landed cost of imported fuel, food and building materials.
Fiji News has asked the Reserve Bank of Fiji and the Fiji Hotel and Tourism Association whether they are seeing any Australian-driven softening in remittance inflows or forward bookings, and will publish their responses when received. Neither the ABC nor The Sun addressed Fiji in the reports cited here; the channels above are mechanism, not measurement.
What CBA says it is seeing in households
Comyn told the ABC the bank sees and feels the impact of higher rates, and that customers are feeling an increasing burden, with cost-of-living pressure hitting different groups differently. Where people are exposed to higher borrowing costs and bigger mortgages, he said, the bank was seeing reduced spending in some cases and reduced savings — and the proportion of customers requiring financial assistance or struggling to meet repayments had increased. Some business subsectors were starting to feel weaker consumer demand.
Those are the lines that matter most for Fiji. “Reduced savings” in an Australian mortgage-belt household and a smaller monthly transfer to Suva or Labasa can be the same event described from either end of the corridor. Recently arrived migrant households also tend to carry the newest loans and the highest loan-to-income ratios — the cohort Comyn described as most exposed.
Set against that, he said doubtful debts remained low and “well below where you would expect the average to be”, mostly because unemployment was still low. That cuts both ways: it is why arrears have not blown out, but it also means the labour market has not given the RBA the slack it would need to declare inflation beaten — part of why Comyn could call the cycle over and the next meeting live in the same breath.
House prices, and the rents behind them
Comyn predicted falling Australian property prices would rebound once rates come down, helped by what he called a structural undersupply of housing. He recalled that national prices fell 8.2 per cent when rates last peaked in 2023, said current predictions point to an estimated 10 per cent drop, and expects prices to weaken over the course of this year. Housing, he said, accounts for 57 per cent of household wealth in Australia.
For Fijians already in Australia, that undersupply shows up first in rents, not prices — the pressure visible in Gold Coast rents at $900 a week, in a city with a large Pacific workforce. Falling prices do nothing for a renting household, and higher rents and higher repayments come out of the same money that would otherwise go home.
One caveat on the numbers
The 8.2 per cent figure is Comyn’s own, stated as history. The 10 per cent is not: the ABC attributes it to “current predictions” as he characterised them, naming no bank, research house or published forecast, so Fiji News treats it as unverified. Comyn also runs Australia’s largest mortgage book, and a lender’s chief executive calling the end of a rate cycle is not a neutral forecaster. The RBA has issued no statement endorsing CBA’s view that tightening is finished.
The same question in London
Britain faces its own November decision. The Sun reported on 17 September that the Bank of England held rates at 3.75 per cent on a 6-3 split, with governor Andrew Bailey warning that “the longer this volatility persists, the bigger the impact it will have on inflation”. The paper said the panel expects inflation near 4 per cent early next year, double the target, and quoted Suren Thiru of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales saying persistent US-Iran hostilities had moved a hike from a possibility to a probability.
Both men trace the problem to the same shock — Middle East conflict and the fuel prices that followed — but land in different places. The UK is staring at a worse inflation starting point; Australia is further through its cycle, with a tight labour market keeping arrears low. Hence: probable in London, merely live in Sydney.
What to watch
- End of October: Australian quarterly inflation — the reading Comyn said the RBA’s decision depends on.
- 3 November: RBA board meeting, the one Comyn called “live”.
- November: Bank of England decision, where The Sun’s sources expect a rise.
- Monthly: RBF economic review, remittance inflows by source country — the fastest Fiji-side read on Australian household stress.
- Monthly: Fiji Bureau of Statistics visitor arrivals, for any softening in the Australian market.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the next RBA board meeting and the inflation data Comyn referred to?
According to the ABC, the next round of quarterly Australian inflation data is released at the end of October and the Reserve Bank of Australia board meets on 3 November. Comyn told the ABC the RBA’s next move would depend on that inflation reading. The RBA publishes its meeting dates and post-meeting statements on its monetary policy pages, which is where any decision would first be confirmed.
Did Comyn say anything about Fiji or the Pacific?
No. The ABC interview is about Australian borrowers, Australian house prices and the RBA. Comyn made no reference to Fiji, to personal remittances or to Pacific labour mobility schemes, and The Sun’s report on the Bank of England does not mention Fiji either. The Fiji channels described in this report are drawn from the published mandates and data series of the Reserve Bank of Fiji and the Fiji Bureau of Statistics, not from either source article.
How would an Australian rate rise reach Fiji’s economy?
Through three channels. Remittances: Australia is one of Fiji’s largest sources of personal remittance inflows, which the Reserve Bank of Fiji reports monthly by source country, and those transfers come from households whose mortgage or rent costs move with the RBA cash rate. Tourism: Australia is Fiji’s largest visitor-source market, with arrivals by country of residence published by the Fiji Bureau of Statistics. Currency: the RBF pegs the Fiji dollar to a basket of trading-partner currencies that includes the Australian dollar, so AUD moves pass into import costs.
Who forecast the 10 per cent fall in Australian house prices?
The ABC report does not name the forecaster. Comyn referred to ‘current predictions’ of an estimated 10 per cent drop and contrasted that with the 8.2 per cent national fall he said followed the 2023 rate peak. Because no bank, economist or published report is identified, Fiji News treats the 10 per cent figure as Comyn’s characterisation of market expectations rather than a verified forecast.
Where are UK interest rates now, and was the decision unanimous?
The Sun reported on 17 September that the Bank of England kept its rate on hold at 3.75 per cent, with the nine-member panel split 6-3 in favour of no change. The paper said the panel expects inflation of about 3.75 per cent by the end of this year, peaking near 4 per cent in early 2027, and that economists it quoted expect rises at the November and February meetings.
