No drought declaration, alert or advisory for Fiji appears in any of the reports available on the current El Niño — but Fiji’s nearest neighbour now has one, and the price channel runs straight into Suva’s import bill. The Tonga Meteorological Service has declared drought across all of the kingdom’s major islands — Tongatapu, Niuatoputapu, Ha’apai and ‘Eua — as El Niño strengthens in the Pacific, RNZ Pacific reported on 9 October 2026.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate this El Niño could push global food commodity prices up more than 15 per cent, The Northwest Arkansas Times reported in September. Fiji imports most of what it eats, so that forecast is the clearest Fiji-facing figure on the record — and it is an inference from global data, not a Fiji measurement.
Key facts
- None of the three reports used here records a drought declaration, alert or warning for Fiji.
- Drought declared for Tongatapu, Niuatoputapu, Ha’apai and ‘Eua, according to RNZ Pacific. Niuafo’ou is on a drought warning; Vava’u is on a drought alert.
- Tonga Metservice chief climate officer Seluvaia Ilolahia said warnings will be in place for the next three months, and that the public is responding very seriously to them.
- The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the UN’s weather and climate agency, forecasts sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific to rise to record levels during October–November–December 2026.
- Goldman Sachs puts the possible rise in global food commodity prices at more than 15 per cent.
What it means for Fiji
A food-price shock would land on an economy already braced for one. Fiji’s competition regulator, the FCCC, has warned that fuel and shipping costs were already set to lift Fiji import prices — the one statement from a Fiji authority that speaks directly to the cost side of this outlook. Neither the Fiji Meteorological Service nor the Ministry of Agriculture features in the reports used here, so there is no local forecast, preparedness plan or crop assessment on the record to set against the global numbers.
The United Nations’ World Food Program warned El Niño could push at least 49 million more people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027, The Northwest Arkansas Times reported.
What Tonga’s Met Service said
Ilolahia told RNZ Pacific the government is working with stakeholders so communities get vital information and can access support. She named the National Disaster Office as a close partner, and said it works with the Red Cross and other NGOs on community needs and on reaching the islands when water is being distributed.
On timing, she told the broadcaster: “El Niño is still very strong and, like the forecast, it’s probably going to peak around November to December.”
How strong this El Niño is forecast to be
The WMO’s monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update said El Niño will keep intensifying ahead of its forecast December peak, bringing above-average temperatures to much of the globe and shifting rainfall patterns in ways that raise the risk of both drought and flooding, according to the RNZ report, which was also carried by Scoop. The agency said the event will affect economies, ecosystems and communities worldwide.
The United Kingdom’s national weather and climate service has described the event as possibly the strongest in living memory, and the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration put the chance it will be the strongest on record since 1950 at 69 per cent, The Northwest Arkansas Times reported. The same report said El Niño is part of a natural cycle of warming ocean temperatures, and that global oceans hit new temperature records in August, citing Kareff Rafisura, chief of the Disaster Risk Reduction Division at the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific.
Where Fiji’s imports come from
The supply side of the price forecast sits in Asia. The world’s top three rice exporters — India, Vietnam and Thailand — are among the nations most likely to be hit hard this year, and Indonesia and Malaysia, suppliers of about 85 per cent of the world’s palm oil, are also affected, the September report said. Rafisura told the paper agriculture is the front line, with drought capable of forcing farmers to delay planting, cut acreage or switch crops. Malaysia’s prime minister has ordered its Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security to find ways to mitigate an impact forecast to peak there in November.
Background
Tonga’s declaration lands weeks after Pacific leaders met for Pre-COP31 in Nadi, where regional governments set priorities ahead of COP31 in Antalya, Turkiye, as Scoop noted in its coverage index. Among the themes raised there was Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka’s warning that climate inaction is a choice with consequences for Pacific communities.
Fiji News will report any declaration, alert or advisory issued for Fiji, and any Fiji Met Service or ministry assessment of the season, as soon as one is announced.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Vava’u only on a drought alert rather than under a declaration?
Tonga Metservice chief climate officer Seluvaia Ilolahia told RNZ Pacific there has been some rain in Vava’u, while rainfall in other areas has been below average. On that basis Vava’u sits on an alert, a lower level than a declaration.
Will the dry conditions stop once El Niño ends?
Ilolahia told RNZ Pacific the Met Service is reminding people that El Niño’s impacts may continue after the event itself has ended, and that some effects may arrive late rather than during the peak.
Which parts of the world does the UN expect to be worst affected?
The United Nations’ World Food Program warned the problem will be worst in parts of Central America and southern Africa, with significant effects also anticipated in eastern Africa and South and Southeast Asia, according to The Northwest Arkansas Times.
How expensive have past El Niño events been?
HSBC’s Global Investment Research says losses from past events have reached trillions of dollars and warns the numbers could be even bigger this time, The Northwest Arkansas Times reported. The same report said the total economic fallout of an extreme El Niño is hard to calculate.
